Escapable Logic
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  Thursday, September 22, 2005


An Exhilarating Waste of our Time and Attention

An aviation incident, not an emergency

I was on the phone with Doc last night, as he reports at Plane Chase, discussing Jet Blue 292's progress as its pilots grappled with the core of their emergency: the intersecting bureaucracies that so visibly hold us hostage when possible. 

As Doc relates, he IM'd me a little bit before 6 PDT to turn on CNN. So we chatted for a bit and by 6:06 the whole drill was obvious. It was clear that this thing was no big deal, that the landing would be perfectly normal, except that the two nose tires would burn off and that there would then be a shower of sparks as the nose gear ground down its rim until the aircraft came to a stop. Since there's nothing flammable on the outside of the aircraft, the sparks would cause no damage, and the only real effect was that the aircraft's nose would be about 6 inches lower than normal. In fact, the pilots have a written procedure for a cocked nose gear and the attendant emergency landing.

This is the second reason pilots are paid the big bucks – not only because they can coolly land a compromised plane with 140 souls on board (as the passenger manifests phrase it so eloquently) but because they can do so while dealing with the myriad experts whom the system has assigned to . . . do what, exactly? To protect each expert's individual department's turf, of course. 

Here again, on a tiny scale, we could see the problems that surround every emergency, from a Katrina or Rita to something as energizing but non-threatening as a cocked nose gear. What's obvious to everyone with a little experience and, in this case, with an explicit written procedure in place, is no match for the need for everyone with the slightest authority over the situation to take up as much room as possible in the mind of the collective.

This somewhat jaded former aviator pines for the reality that most people with some experience wish would have happened. The AirBus 320 should have:

  1. Flown past the tower at Burbank or Long Beach, as they did, so a JetBlue mechanic or pilot confirm that the problem was a cocked nose gear, as described in the aircraft's flight manual and Emergency check list.
  2. Proceeded directly over the Pacific, as they did, to dump fuel down to the max recommended emergency landing weight.
  3. Land as soon as possible at Burbank, the flight's origin, where the emergency crews are more than sufficient and where the runways are plenty long enough.
    (in fact, the braking effect of the grinding nose gear was considerable. I'll bet Flight 292's rollout was measurably less than normal – the nose gear has no brakes, so this is the only case where it helps slow the aircraft)
  4. Get the company's paying customers on another Jet Blue aircraft as quickly as possible: at Burbank or Long Beach or even Oakland – wherever another AirBus is available.
  5. If no aircraft is available, get them back to the terminal they had just left – Burbank – as quickly and as undramatically as possible, so as not to inconvenience them more than necessary.

Number 3 is important because it's rarely the initial problem that bites an aviator in the ass. It's the second problem, combined with the first, that then spins off harmonics of woe and wisps of chaos. The more time you spend wandering around in the local area, the more likely that problem #2 will mate with problem #1 and spawn their bastard offspring. The Last Thing to do was what they did: Fly around for 3 hours and then land at LAX where JetBlue has no presence, where the passengers have no desire to go and where the longer runways and larger fleet of emergency equipment and broadcast journalists are meaningless. 

Remember, this was an incident, not an emergency, though it met the technical definition of an emergency.

Confusion in an Emergency Expands to Match the Time and Voices Available

Call it the Emergency Corollary to Parkinson's Law (which all of us should re-read every year). It's the lesson I've taken away from a LOT of aircraft emergencies, usually under compromised conditions. The System – experts in nicely creased trousers, as distinguished from aviators, who are rarely well-creased – doesn't give a shit about the safety or convenience of those exposed to risk. What The System cares about is not rationality, but about covering the ass of every Department Manager within earshot and expanding the influence of the more ambitious among them. 

A rationality meltdown killed most of Katrina's victims, not her winds and rain. That's what kills most people in most emergencies, where all the knowledge for proper action is usually present, if the participants would only follow whatever procedures they can remember and then follow their common sense. Naturally, the labeling of something as an emergency is the surest way to get most of us to abandon our common sense.

The same meltdown of rationality that we witness in every corporate planning meeting is present in every emergency. The only difference is the part about people dying. In combat, time is short, so the well-creased Majors & Colonels don't have time to dream up yet another conversation about the situation. Maybe that's why it's called war time.

Here's an actual transmission by the control tower at Ton Son Nhut Air Base, Saigon, fall, 1967:

"Roger, Air Force F4C with one engine out and low oil pressure on number 2, you're third for landing in the Emergency Traffic Pattern."

"Light this Candle!"

In The Right Stuff, Tom Wolfe described a similar orgy of bureaucratic indecision over launching Friendship 7, Alan Shepard's initial sub orbital flight in 1958. This was the first time we'd launched a Redstone rocket with a human sitting on top of of the seven stories of seething liquid rocket fuel. Every perfectionist engineer and manager improvised new reasons why the 15 minute flight shouldn't launch quite yet, cascading into a four hour delay and forcing Shepard to finally relieve himself in his flight suit, itself a hilarious anecdote. A few delays later,

At T minus 2 minutes and 40 seconds there was another hold. Now Shepard could hear engineers in the blockhouse agonizing over the fuel pressure running high. He could sense what would be coming next. They were going to talk themselves into resetting the pressure relief valve inside the booster engine manually. That would mean postponing the launch for another two days at least. He could see it coming! They were going to scrub the whole thing, lest they hold themselves accountable for his hide if something went wrong! This was not a job for Smilin' Al. It was time for the Icy Commander to arrive and take charge. So he got on the circuit and put the glacial edge on his voice, as only he could do it, and he said:

"All right, I'm cooler than you are. Why don't you fix your little problem . . . and light this candle."

Light the candle! he says. The words of Chuck Yeager himself! The voice of the rocket ace! Oddly enough, it seemed to do the trick. Realizing the astronaut's irritation, they began wrapping up the process and declaring their systems "go."

The Rightest Stuff

They talk about the hours of boredom punctuated by the moments of terror, but pilots rarely talk about their core lifesaving skill: getting the administrators to shut up long enough to put this promiscuous aluminum tube on the ground.

4:17:42 PM    comment []


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