The future is here. It's just not evenly
distributed
yet.
Economies aren't evenly distributed either. We Americans live in a
microeconomy
that's so advanced it's a distant fantasy to most of our fellow humans -
300 million people living like 3 billion. Among us are people who cashed
out of their dotcom shares at the right time who live in an even
smaller,
even more unbelievable microeconomy.
It's often a matter of luck meeting a remarkable opportunity
and a prepared mind. Sabeer Bhatia had an idea he thought was obvious,
which
he later called HotMail. Why should a web user have to know his SMTP
&
POP settings to do email? The idea seemed obvious and technically
trivial.
HotMail "was so inspirational because it seemed like an idea anyone
could
have." (link)
HotMail proved to be a self-imagined microeconomy for Bhatia, his
partner
Jack Smith and VC Steve Jurvetson. So it goes with the most
extraordinary
microeconomies - they're magical but not evenly distributed.
If you're dissatisfied with your microeconomy, it's because the economy
you'ld
like to live in doesn't yet exist for you, though it probably does for
someone
- an unevenly distributed future.
Alan Kay famously said that "
the best way to predict the future is to
invent it". The challenge is to design a user-friendly microeconomy
and
then distribute it evenly enough that it can touch any life. To build
that
microeconomy from scratch, what to focus on? Yesterday, I suggested that
data is the heart of the problem.
Every economy is data-based. Every database is forms-driven. In our
lives,
we say or write some things and if they fit a certain requirement, a
form
is presented to us, filled in, and then our Social Security Number
becomes
a blip in a database which causes resources to flow in ways dictated by
the
database rules. Maybe you get a check every two weeks. Maybe you get a
phone
bill every month.
Most (all?) microeconomies are scarcity-based - they mine a lot of
people's
too-scarce cash and distribute it to very few. They're interesting to us
for the same reason the lottery is interesting - not because it makes a
difference
to so many, but because it makes such a big difference to so few.
Knowing how hard it is to get rich, these opportunistic microeconomies
are
built to be uneven - their candid goal is to make as much money as
possible
for a relatively few people, so that's the purpose of the operational
databases
they build. Then they build a back office database called an accounting
system
to collect from the many and distribute to the anointed few.
If our proposed microeconomy is to be even-handed, it must be
built
from the inside out, starting with an open source accounting system and
then
building the open source operational database(s) to handle the actual
transactions.
As a public microeconomy, there can be no central control and no
definition
of what work is done by this enterprise, since there's no enterprise in
the
usual sense. Instead, it's a free-for-all where we collectively track
the
quality of transactions and conduct the marketplace as we would in a
village,
where all promises and all outcomes are visible to everyone.
Universal Assurance
AT&T's old slogan,
Universal Service, has been realized, but
there's
still dissatisfaction with the service we're getting. What people
purchase
is not a product or service, but a sense of assurance that it will give
them
the benefit they seek. Disappointments arise because you pay in advance
for
everything you get, whether it works as advertised or not. What we need
is
a transaction protocol so favorable to the customer that it creates an
economic
ambience of
Universal Assurance. Here are the elements of
Universal
Assurance:
- All previous customers have thoroughly rated the
proposed
benefit
- The seller will deliver the proposed benefit in advance of
payment,
"on approval"
- The seller is willing to reduce the price of the benefit to match
its
worth to you
- The price you pay is based on the grade you give it once you've
tried
it out
In that microeconomy, you won't contract for anything unless it's
already
been rated highly, which makes it worth the time and effort of trying it
out, knowing your own acceptance protects you against unsuitability.
Our microeconomy is designed to be peer-to-peer, so everyone is buying
and
selling all the time. Our peers' competence is visible, quantifiable and
are tough competition for the "Brand" names. Branding looks pretty weak
compared
to strong ratings from real customers.
Our next challenge is to teach people how to productize whatever they
might
offer, whether it's plumbing, massage, web design or managing your Wall
Street
Journal subscriptions. Then their skills can be describable, sellable,
reputable
and worth more next month than they are today.
10:27:50 PM 
